FiveThirtyEight’s first general election prediction…

If you’re a political junkie, the work of Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com is a fascinating snapshot into the various polls and the possibility of Candidate X winning over Candidate Y, whoever said Candidate is.

Yesterday Mr. Silver offered the first prediction of the upcoming general election.  You may have heard about it…its for the office of the President of the United States and pits Hillary Clinton (D) versus Donald Trump (R).

With this first prediction, granted its 130 plus days away from the actual voting, things aren’t looking good for Mr. Trump.  Or, to use his vernacular, “Sad”:

2016 Election Forecast at FiveThirtyEight

At the risk of spoiling things (if you’re into statistics, this site will be your nirvana), as it stood yesterday Hillary Clinton has a whopping 80.3% chance of winning the Presidency versus Mr. Trump’s 19.7% chance.

Now, much can change as we have a veeerrrrrryyyyy long way to go still.  Having said that, I really hope these stats hold up.  I can’t get my head around Mr. Trump being president and I at times wonder if he’s doing this as a lark knowing full well he’ll never win.  For all I know, he may well be pranking the entire Republican party…

Still, to be that close to the Presidency is a scary thought.

Gary Legum at Salon.com offers some thoughts regarding Mr. Silver’s recent post and the reality (as of this moment) of Mr. Trump’s position:

The math is with Hillary: She’s surging in the polls and Republicans are in denial

Again, its foolish to take one result this far ahead of the actual election date and assume it’ll be the same then, but for those (like me) anxious about the possibility of a Trump presidency, these links provide some relief.