Much as I may personally despise Donald Trump and all he stands for, I have to give him credit: He’s a resilient creature and he got his people to come out to vote for him.
However, at this point in time and despite his attempts to proclaim victory, the 2020 Presidential election isn’t in the books. In fact, also despite Trump’s attempts to proclaim otherwise, things might in fact be looking good for Joe Biden to win… that is, if I’m reading all the information about the election right (I’m no expert, nor pretend to be one!).
Because there are a vast number of mail in votes still to be counted, and those have at least to this point shown themselves to favor Joe Biden.
If we are to take the current electoral college numbers, Joe Biden has -give or take depending on your news source- 238 EC votes to Trump’s 213 with the following states still to declare winners: Nevada (6 electoral votes, leaning Biden), Alaska (3, leaning Trump), Wisconsin (10, leaning Biden), Michigan (16, leaning Trump), Pennsylvania (20, leaning Trump), North Carolina (15, leaning Trump), and Georgia (16, leaning Trump).
One needs 270 electoral college votes to win and, If the “leaning” figures stay as they are, Trump wins 70 electoral votes and therefore the Presidency with a total of 283 electoral votes to Biden’s 254 (we are also assuming Nevada and Wisconsin stay with Biden, of course).
Here’s the thing though: Michigan and Pennsylvania, with a total of 36 electoral votes, have Trump ahead by a very small margin of 24,248 votes in Michigan with 91% of the precincts reporting and a larger margin of 675,012 votes in Pennsylvania BUT with only 64% of those precincts counted at this particular moment in time. Similar stats are to be found with both North Carolina and Georgia.
The votes still to be counted are the mail in votes which the states will count between today and… I dunno, perhaps later this week.
Those votes, many believe, are far stronger for Biden than Trump, perhaps much, much stronger, and they could well boost Biden into winning both Michigan and Pennsylvania -and maybe even Georgia as well!- in the end… assuming the Supreme Court doesn’t interfere in the count.
If -and its a big one- Biden carries the 238 electoral votes I noted above and winds up winning the two states he’s already trending positive in, Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10), and the mail in votes counted for Michigan (16) go his way -we’ll leave out the larger hurdle he has so far for Pennsylvania- he will have added 32 electoral college votes to his total.
Using grade school math, Biden’s current 238 plus 32 give us… 270 and the election. At that point its irrelevant what ultimately happens in Pennsylvania, Alaska (which its somewhat fair to assume will go Republican), North Carolina, and Georgia..
So the big question becomes: Does the Supreme Court interfere in this election and stop the voting?
Clearly Donald Trump wants this. If things were to freeze as they are at this moment in time, he’s won the re-election.
However, I can’t help but wonder what possible justification the Supreme Court would produce (a majority, no less) to stop the count. These are legitimate mail in ballots we’re talking about, votes which have always been counted in previous elections and not some oddball votes that were “conveniently” found just today, the day after the election.
They were properly sent in and received by election day yesterday and, by all rights, should be counted.
Let’s see if they are.