As I type this at a little past 9:00 am on the morning of Friday the 6th of November, a full three days following Tuesday’s election, there have been two major developments in the counting of the various outstanding mail in ballots throughout the country:
First, Joe Biden has taken the lead over Donald Trump in -shockingly!- Georgia. Second, and just happening a few minutes ago, Joe Biden has taken the lead over Donald Trump in -more expected- Pennsylvania.
Both margins are, at the moment, rather small, amounting to a little over 1000 votes in Georgia and over 5000 votes in Pennsylvania. The Georgia figure will likely wind up remaining in and around that area as 99% of the votes have been counted. Biden may gain a little more but GA will likely wind up being a state with a very narrow margin of victory, likely for Biden.
Pennsylvania, on the other hand, still has some 5% of the votes -mail in votes- to come in, estimated to be over 100,000 to go, and they have been trending strongly toward Biden by a margin between 70-80%.
Already comments made on the news networks indicate that if this trend continues -and there is so far no evidence at all to expect it won’t- Biden will have won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes.
So, with a win in PA, if we are to take Biden’s current EC total (even removing Arizona which, though declared for Biden by NPR and Fox has mail in/outstanding votes which may be trending more toward Trump than originally anticipated, though maybe not enough to get him in the lead), Biden will have his 253 electoral college votes given a 20 EC boost which will put him at… 273.
The magic number to win, of course, is 270.
If, as it seems to be, Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, he will acquire an additional 11, 6, and 16 EC votes which may make his final total 306.
Again, though, if things go completely sideways for Biden and he loses the above three states, if he wins Pennsylvania that’s the ball game…
…and it would appear the ballgame is done.
If indeed the networks declare Biden the victor today at some point (I’m guessing around noon, but we’ll see), the next question will be what will Trump do.
There are reports he will not concede and, perhaps its wishful thinking on my part, even his biggest fans might begin to realize its time for him to face reality and his loss.
Maybe if he prolongs this with pointless lawsuits, they may even come to see the childishness within him.
I’m probably being too optimistic, but I’ve always tried to look on the bright side of life…