Looks like the people who work with statistics/prognostication really blew it this time around.
I mean, they were off in 2016 too, mostly predicting a Hillary Clinton win, but they could hold that off by stating, like fivethirtyeight.com did, that they had her win within a statistical margin of error and, voila!, she fell into that and Trump won.
But this time around…
The fact is that all the major statistical organizations had this looking like not only a Biden win -which increasingly (I hope!) will prove true- but a rather overwhelming victory.
I remember on election day one pundit -I believe he was involved in the Lincoln project- stated that this election wasn’t going to be like the 1980 election where Ronald Reagan overwhelmed Jimmy Carter, but like the 1964 election, where Lyndon Johnson cremated Arizona Governor Barry Goldwater.
Yeah, didn’t quite turn out that way, did it?
Anyway, over at Slate.com Matthew Dessem offers this amusing article:
Once Again, the American People Have Misunderstood My Election Entrail-Reading Methodology
Read it and laugh.